Financial warfare

Ken's picture

This morning's news is all about the financial sanctions the "West" is placing on Russia for invading Ukraine. Leaving aside the kinetic activity for a moment, the pictures of regular Russians standing in line to get some of their rubles out of an ATM reminded me of similar photos from the Greek banking collapse in 2009. Which reminded me of the runs on banks in the Great Depression in the US.

My question is: "What, if anything, can we as simple citizens do to insure access to our own money?"

It was a shock to me when I was informed that my "deposits" in the bank were actually a loan and that I was considered a creditor, not a depositor. With inflation eating my savings and increasing concern that global financial warfare could prevent me from being able to access my savings, I'm wondering about how much physical cash to keep on hand and in what form? (I'm thinking mid-term here, not complete SHTF.)

I hate banks and bankers and would love to tell them all to go straight to whatever circle of hell is reserved for usurers (7th if I recall correctly) but it's pretty awkward to live and work in the US without having a bank account. Do any of you use credit unions? It would mean dealing electronically or by mail for me, since there is no credit union on the island at this time.

I am also wary of the ongoing push for 'cashless' transactions. I literally get people glaring at me in the grocery store when I take an extra 5 seconds to pay in exact change with physical money rather than using a card... Paper and coins are just as non-real/representational as electronic blips when it comes right down to it, but those physical representations of money are durable and low-tech, whereas electronic blips can evaporate into the ether with a keystroke. This is one reason, among many others, why cryptocurrencies are of zero interest to me. Not that I am anticipating a North Korean EMP, though I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility; still I like being able to hold something tangible in my hands.

This is starting to wander out into the weeds but I hope that it can start a fresh discussion of how to deal with savings, cash and banking as this civilization thuds down the back stairs of collapse.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-japan-9fbeb1c6...

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Well, I bank at a credit union and have for years. For the most part, I don't have any complaints. I can do all my banking on a computer or my phone, but I prefer to go into a branch and do my business in person.

Over the last couple of years I have been slowly emptying my 401k and putting the money into the house next door that my husband and I bought and are renovating. The money has been setting in cash for the last six years, so at least it is now being put to a good use.

The idea is of course to put my money into a "real" thing and to rent it for income, but I feel wary of long term leases as even with a lease, renters can trash your place. I am looking at renting it out via AirB&B or like short term rental sites. Granted renters can still trash your place, but it seems to me you have more control with the short term rentals and they pay up front. I could be wrong, but we will try it here in the near future.

Ken's picture

I have my little guest house and our rental house both on airbnb. We literally make 3 times the income and as you guessed, the place stays in WAY better shape. In most states the laws around leases are heavily weighted toward protecting tenant's rights, which in theory is a good thing. In practice however, it means that you, the owner of the property, are bound by a multitude of laws and regulations; whereas the tenant is bound by nothing except the fear of being 'blacklisted' in the community. I've had long term tenants that didn't take out the trash for 6 months... we had one who moved in and her first check bounced; we never got another and it took 6 months to get her out! A lease means nothing to a tenant. And therein is the second great benefit of airbnb; rentals of less than one month do not require a written lease (in WA, your state may have different rules). There is also a third benefit, which is it keeps your options open for having friends and family stay there. On the downside, the cost of furnishings is not insignificant and people expect a fine hotel level of spotlessness, so the cleaning has to be done properly. It is definitely more time consuming than renting a place for a year at a time, but the rewards are well worth it to us. We consider this our "working-retirement income". We live on an island that is a tourist destination and we have a small horse farm operation, so those are valuable 'draws' to our vacation rentals. If you don't have some kind of draw, you might have to come up with something to offer: hand's on classes in weeding the tomatoes? A two hour course in composting with hand's on opportunity to turn the bins, short how-to class on turning your suburban lawn into a garden, etc. On the plus side, there is nothing like teaching the basics to help find flaws in our own systems and thinking. And frankly, having company from time to time can be quite interesting! Airbnb has a unique feature compared to all the other online rental platforms, in that it gives you a chance to review the tenant as well as the tenant to review you. This helps keep people better behaved (usually). We've tried several of the platforms and Airbnb is by far the best for us. The link below is to The Rose Cottage (our guest house) so you can see what I'm talking about.
https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/85269?federated_search_id=6912f883-82d7-459...

I am glad to hear that you have had good luck with AirB&B. I know other horror stories from those who have rented their properties with a lease which is why I wanted to try AirB&B first. I have also heard from those who also rent their properties to short term renters and I am pretty sure I will exclude pet owners with the exception of "real" service animals.

Where I am AirB&B is a curse for people who actually need to rent a place to live. Jacks up the rents past what local people can pay, and often avoids the taxes the AirB&B's are legally supposed to pay. I don't like AirB&B. There are lots of good, reliable people out there who need a place to live.

I know you're running a business, not a charity, but I thought I'd put the tenant's viewpoint into this discussion.

I don't know how much space you are able to rent or need, but it occurred to me that a person who needed very little space, say a bedroom and access to bath and kitchen, might do well to approach AirB&B hosts who have an entire house to rent and offer to be the on site manager for a very reduced rent. Such a person might prevent guests from trashing the place with a single night party and other mindless carelessness and be on hand to help with facility questions guests might have.

If the house is big enough, they might end up with more then just a bedroom and sharing a bath and kitchen. Maybe there would be a MIL apartment that the host would find worthwhile to offer to the site manager if other income from the house rental was enough. If the host doesn't live very close, such a live in site manager might also offer to do yard work or light maintenance not to mention making the house ready for new guests.

The house I have to rent via AirB&B isn't that big and it only has one bath, but my future experiences might teach me that such an arrangement is a good one even if I live next door and loose a little bit of income.

Ken's picture

Thank you for the reminder that vacation rentals are not without unintended consequences. I don't know how it works elsewhere, but here Airbnb pays the transient lodging tax for the homeowner (10%). Those tax dollars never see the inside of my bank account, they go straight from Airbnb to the State of Washington; where they are disbursed according to statute, which means that at least some of the taxes charged come back to San Juan County.

As far as "lot's of good, reliable people out there that need a place to live", I'm sure you are correct. But am I supposed to fund their housing? Nobody funds MY housing; I do that myself. And yes, I rented until I was in my 30's before I was able to buy a little half acre lot and build a little house, but I didn't expect anyone to rent to me for less than the market rate simply because I couldn't afford the going rate. There is no law that says you get to live wherever you want whether you can afford it or not...

David Trammel's picture

Ken, are you aware of the push back many locations and the long time residents are doing towards AirBnBs? Seems to me that is going to become a bigger threat than you seem to anticipate. There is a lot of anger at the impact people feel these conversions inflict on neighborhoods.

The Airbnb Effect On Housing And Rent

That said I haven't looked into the arguments myself. I could be reading too many on the con side.

Also I was under the impression that a AirBnB or short term rentals do not pay property tax, which is becoming an additional issue with communities since schools and small townships fund many services through property taxes.

Ken's picture

There IS a vocal minority that would like to scapegoat the owners of vacation rentals for the national housing affordability problem. I only know the details in my particular county, but it is crystal clear that the cost of housing has increased far faster than wages in virtually all areas of the nation. Higher real estate prices lead to higher rents and SOMEBODY must be willing and able to pay those higher rents or landlords would have to reduce their prices to keep their property occupied.

Since the 2010 census, the population of my county has gone up (officially) just under 13%. Note that this doesn't count all the people the census misses: illegals, nomads, cranky anarchists, etc., all of whom still have to live somewhere. Meanwhile the housing stock in the county hasn't increased at all and the number of rentals has gone down slightly.

Old funky houses that used to be cheap/crappy rentals have been sold for the value of the land and location and yes, there have been long term rentals that have been turned into vacation rentals for a whole variety of reasons, mostly because even with the extra work and attention, the income is SIGNIFICANTLY higher. (This is how I am able to have a 'working-retirement' instead of just working 'till I drop.)

So there are fewer rentals available and more people wanting to rent, especially with everyone that was/is working from home in the city wanting to move to the country. It's simply a matter of supply and demand. The same dynamic is present across many regions I suspect.

As far as taxes go, residential vacation rental properties pay the same PROPERTY taxes that any other residential property pays. Plus we pay transient rental taxes on top (10% of gross income in San Juan county). Plus we pay income tax on the rental income! And we pay our housekeeper and gardener $30/hr. Admittedly it's not a full time job but that's still pretty darn good money for semi-skilled labor. Interestingly, Airbnb insists that hosts pay a "living wage" to housekeepers, etc., which they define as $25/hr.

VR hosts contribute via taxes to the state far more than simple residential use does. AND those visitors/guests shop in the stores, eat in the restaurants and yes, they also take up space on the ferry and they drive 15 mph gawking at the view with silly smiles on their faces while I'm trying to get to the hardware store before it closes. Tourism is not a 'real' industry and it's not without it's drawbacks but it's all we've got here and without it there is only construction and tending to the needs of wealthy retirees. And frankly, if it's a choice between tourists and a hog farm or an open pit copper mine, I'll take the tourists.

The unmentioned dynamic behind the opprobrium heaped on vacation rental owners is that the hotel industry is DEEPLY afraid of people renting out their spare rooms and guest houses because it cuts into their corporate profits. Follow the money and you will find Marriot, Quality Inn, Hilton, etc. behind the biased media coverage claiming "Airbnb is destroying neighborhoods." It's the same old story of entrenched corporate interests threatened by a disruptor technology frantically trying to hold onto their market share.

I appreciate this thread. I am going to the credit union today to get some additional cash. I can only take out $400 a day, so that is what I'll do....but would appreciate some thoughtful discussion of the whole how much is enough issue....we have only used a credit union for more than 30 years, and it is SO much better than the bank we used to have. You can always talk to a real person, and the assistance is really sincere, not just a window dressing. The guarantees are just the same as the banks, and there are no fees. I think it has been a completely worthwhile switch.

I'm not keen on banks but I have to use them.

I *LOATH* the whole cashless society idea. That's a way to ensure our elites can grab every penny. Remember when small depositors in Crete got a haircut and the major investors all somehow got the word and moved their money early? Cashless means someone else knows -- to the penny -- what you have.

Cash is king in crises. So how much cash should you have on hand?

This is where security and fire safety become issues. You have to be able to get to the $$ easily if you have to bug out but you also don't want it easy for home invaders to find.

1) Don't look rich. If you don't look like you've got $$ stored, you're less likely to be robbed.

2) Only stash what you can afford to lose in a fire.

3) Make sure you are NOT the only person who knows where the $$ is hidden. If something happens to you, it would be nice if your family could find the money.

4) Don't hide your stash in stupid places like inside the sofa. If you hide little stashes all over the place (coat pockets, purses in the closet, hollowed-out books, cookie jars, etc.) you'll forget where some of your locations.

5) Two possible locations: inside your bugout bag and inside a Ziploc bag in the freezer. That's accessible but not readily visible.

6) If you can afford it, keep a thousand or even two in cash. THIS IS MAJOR EMERGENCY MONEY. It is not to be spent on a dinner and a movie. It isn't even money for emergencies like the transmission falling out of your car or needing new tires. This is major emergency, can't get cash any other way, the sky is falling money. This is the cash that will get you out of your area and into a hotel room three states away.

7) Mattress money doesn't earn interest. It's for running away from the hurricane or the mob.

8) If you can afford to stash more, then do so but again, don't stash what you can't afford to lose in a fire.

9) Banks keep remarkable records so withdraw a little at a time; say $20 a week from the ATM over and above what you already do. Get small bills and tuck it away.

10) Make sure whatever you do with your emergency cash that someone else (trustworthy!) knows where it is in the event you are hit by a bus. If you can't find it, you don't have it.

I have covered some of your points, but some of the others I need to address, especially the one about sharing the information about where it is hiding. I have at least three stashes of cash, but I wouldn't say that any of them are fire proof, the freezer is a good choice for a hiding place.

With the currant rise in oil prices, I am giving serious thought to emptying my 401k, take the tax hit and be done with that. I can slowly withdraw the money and stash it as mentioned.

401K's (and we have them) are bets that the stock market and bond market will go up and not down when you need to withdraw the money.

It's a really hard decision; taking the bird in the hand now rather than waiting and hoping a whole flock of birds will arrive in the future.

We began drawing down on our 401K a few years ago (taking the tax hit) as we used it to fund our writing business. We withdrew as little as we could.

As it stands now, looking at the stock market, maybe we should have withdrawn more. Or moved from a stock market matching fund to a bond fund.

It's impossible to guess. The markets will remain crazy far longer than you or I can remain solvent.

So the answer is: I dunno. Make your best guess and accept that you could be wrong.
On the other hand, better to withdraw your cash a year early rather than a day too late, after the markets crash and all your assets turn back into toilet paper.

I am going to spend a bit of time thinking about this as there isn't as much left as when we started to rehab the house, but this is still a goodly chunk that I would hate to loose. My 401K never did recover from the dot com bust and I moved everything into cash before 2008 on my own prickly senses and the advice of very savvy others. I did move it back into the stock market for a period of time then got cold feet with the Trump election and put it all back into cash. I will probably do some divination too.

Mine is very much like using a bank. There's no monthly fees, though, so it's cheaper for me. One difference with credit unions in Canada is that they usually guarantee the entire amount, rather than up to $100,000 per account against the sort of haircuts you saw in Cyprus. That one doesn't affect me, but it will affect some people.

I do try to keep a bit of cash on hand because it is essential for a few things, and helps increase resilience in all sorts of situations, but I don't keep huge amounts, as I have zero desire to tempt thieves, or Murphy's law.

Ken's picture

According to their website, the FDIC (in the US) now insures up to $250K per depositor, per bank. To be frank, if there were a serious banking collapse, how is it possible that the FDIC is going to actually make you and everyone else whole? Are they going to just conjure it out of thin air? I think of the FDIC as smoke that's being blown up my ...

David Trammel's picture

Sorry, I was out of town and it took longer than I figured.

One advantage not to over look is that credit unions are typically small and local. That makes them less likely to be affected by larger national issues or for them to have problems at the corporate level you don't know about. A huge stake in say some dodgy Russian bank they don't tell anyone about that causes the bank to close their branches for a few days and makes getting your money out impossible is less likely to happen with a credit union that only has a half dozen branches.

Also, diversify! Don't have all your funds in one financial institution. I have my part time payroll going into my credit union account, and my social security going into my regular bank account. If either source of income is delayed or the institution have a problem, I should still be able to access some funds.

Also2, diversify your out of bank money stash as well. You should have copies of important papers and flash drives with back up information stored at a friend's home already. Consider stashing $1000 there too. If you worry about temptation, buy one of those small fire safes, toss everything into it and don't give them the combination. Have them just put it in their basement for you in case of an emergency.

Ken's picture

A fire safe stashed at another location is a great idea; thank you for that! Copies of important documents, some silver and some lead with a lead delivery implement would be a good 'stash'. The only down side I see to small fire safes is they are typically light enough for a determined thief to walk away with. Some of them have an option to screw it to the floor from the inside, so that might be a good feature to look for.